Ban on High-Risk PV Inverters to Hit 14% of EU Solar Demand Through 2030 — PV Magazine Global

Analysis by Wood Mackenzie shows the European Commission’s ban on solar inverters and power conversion systems from China and other jurisdictions designated as high-risk by the EU could disrupt roughly 14% of projected European solar demand between 2026 and 2030. Wood Mackenzie further noted, “This figure equates to more than 28 gigawatts of solar inverter demand.”

Back in April, the European Commission moved forward with plans to withhold EU funding from PV projects fitted with inverters supplied by high-risk vendors, citing cybersecurity concerns. The policy also covers battery energy storage schemes. Wood Mackenzie forecasts the rules will affect 12% of the EU’s planned energy storage rollouts through the end of the decade.

Designed in part to counter the dominant market share held by Chinese inverter manufacturers across Europe, the ban is projected to hit Central and Eastern European economies hardest. Wood Mackenzie identifies Romania, Bulgaria, the Baltic States and Greece as the most exposed markets. Utility-scale projects in North Africa, the Middle East and the Caspian region receiving financing from EU institutions will also be impacted by the prohibition.

Juan Monge commented that the ban will divert approximately 4 to 5 GW of demand away from Chinese suppliers by 2030. However, she pointed out that around 80% of Europe’s solar and storage demand is covered by private and national funding streams, meaning “Chinese inverters will retain their dominant market position for the time being.”